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Today,The Athletic’s Mike Sando released hisQB Betrayal Index, measuring which quarterbacks are winning despite poor defense and special teams play. Caleb Williams is again not where Chicago wants to see him.
As for us, we’re covering:
- Playoff bracket in flux
- Anthony Richardson’s return
- Head coaches to hire
- Tonight’s game preview
Early look: Playoff jockeying, based on schedules
At this point last season, the Jaguars (then 6-3), Seahawks (6-3), Saints (5-5) and Vikings (6-4) were all in line for the playoffs. None made it.
They were replaced by the Texans (started 5-4, finished 10-7), Rams (from 3-6 to 10-7), Buccaneers (from 4-5 to 9-8) and Packers (from 3-6 to 9-8). So there’s still plenty of hope for early underachievers, which also means some teams currently in good shape won’t remain there for long.
First, a quick look at what the AFC bracket would look like if the NFL playoffs began today:
The two teams that immediately invite my skepticism reside in the AFC West.
In Los Angeles, not only do the currently No. 6 Chargers (6-3) face undefeated Kansas City again, their overall remaining schedule gets nearly twice as difficult:
- 44.4 percent of their Weeks 1-10 opponents currently have four or more wins.
- 75 percentof their Weeks 11-18 opponents have four or more wins, including key matchups against the 4-6 Bengals and 4-6 Buccaneers.
In Denver,the No. 7 Broncos (5-5) also see the Chiefs again, albeit in Week 18, when Kansas City could be resting starters. The key stretch will be Weeks 16 and 17, when they play the Chargers and Bengals in road games that could determine the final wild card spot.
As for the teams on the outside looking in:
Those Bengalscould quickly claim a wild card spot if they beat the Chargers and Broncos, while a three-game stretch of Cleveland, Dallas and Tennessee (combined record: 7-20) also helps.
The Colts(4-6) will need to sort out their quarterback mess (Anthony Richardson is back as the starter, more on that below), but they only play one team with a .500-plus record (Lions in Indy) over their final seven games.
The Dolphins(3-6) need to win home games against Las Vegas and New England over the next two weeks, because the subsequent four-game stretch looks much more difficult: Packers, Jets, Texans and 49ers.
The Jets (3-7) have lost three of four games since firing HC Robert Saleh, but their remaining schedule — with just one game remaining against a .500-plus team (Buffalo) — provides some faint hope. That said, of those upcoming opponents, only the Jaguars look like an easy out for New York. The Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins (x2) and Rams are playoff contenders.
As for the current NFC picture:
Of course, the season-long surprises on this list — Cardinals, Vikings and Commanders — have competitors hot on their heels.
Four teams who might catch up:
The Buccaneers(4-6) had a similar start last season before sneaking into the playoffs, and could do so again with games against the Giants, Panthers (x2), Raiders, Cowboys and Saints upcoming. The biggest test will be the Chargers, but otherwise, this schedule screamsplayoff-bound— thoughAustin Mock’s projection modelgives Tampa Bay just a 16 percent chance.
The 49ers(5-4) are winners of two straight, and recently welcomed the return of 2023 Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey. But their remaining schedule, where the opponent with the worst record is a 3-6 Miami no longer using backup QBs, will challenge the reigning NFC champs. Of all the teams outside the current picture, Mock’s model has the 49ers (45 percent chance) as the most likely to get in, though.
The Rams(4-5) went 7-1 following their Week 10 bye last season, which will be difficult to repeat, with upcoming matchups against the Eagles, Bills, Cardinals, and 49ers. The Jets, Seahawks, Drake Maye-led Patriots and rejuvenated Saints won’t roll over, either.
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The Seahawks(4-5) also have a difficult schedule. And while someone has to win the NFC West, I doubt it’s Seattle, given their 0-2 record against division rivals (with all three division road games still to go). Fans are asking if they werebetter off with Pete Carroll.
Not listed:The Bears(4-5), who begin a three-game NFC North stretch against the Packers, Vikings and Lions this week. To make matters worse, they play those three contenders again during Weeks 15-18. Austin’s model has Chicago finishing 6-11, which would at least provide an early first-round pick?
Perhaps things will change with new OC Thomas Brown, whomAdam Jahns profiled here. As long as he’s not too nice:
I asked Keenan Allen why things didn't work with Shane Waldron here at Halas Hall:
"I would say just probably he was too nice of a guy. I think during OTAs, training camp, he kind of fell into a trap of letting things go, not holding people accountable. Obviously those things…
— Dan Wiederer (@danwiederer) November 13, 2024
What Dianna’s Hearing: Richardson’s Colts, for good this time
The Indianapolis Colts are giving Anthony Richardson a second shot to be their starting quarterback. With Joe Flacco heading back to the bench, Richardson will be the starter for the rest of 2024 — I’m told there will be no flip-flopping back to Flacco.
Head coach Shane Steichen decided to return to the 22-year-old Richardson after discussing the situation with owner Jim Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard. A team source said that the organization believes this is the best plan for the future, as they are giving Richardson a chance to develop and prove he can be the Colts’ QB of the future.
Back to you, Jacob.
2025 Coaches: Where five could land
Bill Belichick, Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson lead a star-studdedNFL head coach candidate list. In fact, it’s a list so long — 18 candidates — that there will be far more candidates than openings.
Here’s a quick look at the top prospects, along with a short list of fits that would make sense (and if you don’t like any of these ideas, blame me, not Dianna):
Bill Belichick:His 29-31 record after losing Tom Brady was largely due to the regression of Mac Jones and New England’s 27th-ranked offense over that span (by EPA). Belichick is one of the greatest defensive coaches in history, but I’d expect a hiring team to ask a lot of questions about his offensive approach.
The other obvious question is how much control Belichick will demand over personnel. Dallas feels like a fit, withWill McClay’s rolesolidified, meaning Bill could focus on coaching. This 2019 note byJon Machota caught my eye, though I can’t picture Belichick on the ski slopes:
After Bill Belichick was fired by the Cleveland Browns in the mid-90s, he ran into Jerry Jones at a ski resort. Jones said Bill told the Cowboys owner not to forget about him if he had an opening in the future. Jones says he still thinks about that from time to time
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 19, 2019
Lions OC Ben Johnson:After being rumored to land in Washington and Seattle last offseason, expect Johnson — who has Detroit’s offense fourth in total EPA since taking over last season — to be picky about his landing spot.
Given the weapons available in Chicago and their desperate need for a better play caller, it’s an obvious destination. If Johnson wants to avoid the NFC North (don’t blame him), then the Raiders (if that 2-7 team ends up with the No. 1 pick) could be interesting, though he’ll likely have his pickings — including the option to return to Detroit.
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Chargers DC Jesse Minter, 41, reminds me of former Ravens DC Mike Macdonald (Seattle HC), another young mind who was in charge of a top-ranked defense. The year-one turnaround with largely the same unit — theChargers are allowing 13.1 points per game, 1st, after ranking 23rd last season (23.4) — makes the former college DC an intriguing candidate.
Just yesterday, Jim Harbaughsaid, “We’re probably gonna have to enjoy Jesse Minter while we have him because I think he’s gonna be a head coach next year.” As for landing spots, the Cowboys, Jets and Saints feel like possibilities.
Mike Vrabel:The 50-year-old has a winning career record (54-45), having led the Titans to .500-plus seasons in each of his first four years — until they traded A.J. Brown early in 2022. A culture-changer, Vrabel would be well suited for any opportunity requiring a major shift.
The Jets immediately come to mind, butthey can’t hire another defensive-minded coach, right? Maybe Dallas, if Jerry Jones lets Mike McCarthy go (and maybe McCarthy could reunite with Aaron Rodgers in New York).
Cardinals OC Drew Petzing:Like Minter, he doesn’t have the name recognition of his counterparts, but has played a big role foran up-and-coming team. The 37-year-old has an impressive 16 years of coaching experience, beginning with his time as a volunteer student assistant for Harvard at age 22.
I don’t see Rodgers signing off on Petzing in New York, but could see him landing in Chicago, Dallas, Jacksonville or New Orleans.
For a full picture on the head coaching cycle, I recommend Jeff Howe’s article for insight on everyonefrom Belichick to Aaron Glenn to … Deion Sanders.
TNF Preview: A.J. Brown should roll
Tonight’s game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with the 7-3 Commanders visiting the 7-2 Eagles in another potential Thursday thriller. BetMGM has Philly as 3.5-point favorites.
Two players to watch:
- Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr.A hamstring injury has sidelined him for their past two weeks, after he also missed their Week 6 matchup in Baltimore. The Commanders are just 1-2 without their No. 1 runner (7-1 with him), who is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards per carry and has six touchdowns in seven games. He’ll battle an Eagles defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry across their past three games (fourth-best).
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown.With Marshon Lattimore still out, Washington will likely try to put 6-3 corner Benjamin St-Juste on the 6-1 Brown, making for a better matchup than using 5-10 rookie Mike Sainristil. That won’t help much — PFF ranks St-Juste as the 105th-best corner out of 109 — and I expect Brown to have a field day. He’ll just needJalen Hurts to get the ball out quicker.
With a Vegas total of 48.5, we should be in for another entertaining Thursday night! See you tomorrow.
Yesterday’s most-clicked:Dane Brugler’s2025 NFL Draft Big Board, which has Travis Hunter No. 1.
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(Photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)
